Wahyu Dwi Anggoro
IDXChannel - The pace of geoeconomic fragmentation is expected to accelerate in 2024, according to the latest Chief Economists Outlook released on Monday (15/1/2024).
The majority of chief economists say geopolitics will stoke volatility in the global economy (87%) and stock markets (80%), increase localization (86%), strengthen geoeconomic blocs (80%) and widen the North-South divide (57%) in the next three years.
"As governments increasingly experiment with industrial policy tools, experts are nearly unanimous in expecting these policies to remain largely uncoordinated between countries," the World Economic Forum (WEF) stated in a media release.
Chief economists also expect AI-enabled benefits to vary widely across income groups, with notably more optimistic views about the effects in high-income economies.
A strong majority said generative AI will increase efficiency of output production (79%) and innovation (74%) in high-income economies this year. Looking at the next five years, 94% expect these productivity benefits to become economically significant in high-income economies, compared to only 53% for low-income economies.
Almost three-quarters (73%) do not foresee net-positive impact on employment in low-income economies and 47% said the same for high-income economies. The views are somewhat more divided on the likelihood of generative AI to increase standards of living and to lead to a decline in trust, with both being slightly more likely in high-income markets.
Organized by the WEF’s Centre for the New Economy and Society, the Chief Economist Outlook builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,
The latest survey was conducted in November-December 2023.
The WEF Annual Meeting 2024, taking place 15-19 January in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, convenes the world’s foremost leaders under the theme, Rebuilding Trust. (WHY)
